Burden of Explanation
Examines when a significant departure from ordinary expectations creates a need for additional explanation without treating the departure itself as proof.
In developmentAnalytical framework
Methods
Patterns of Madness separates observation from explanation. These methods describe how evidence is weighed, how uncertainty is handled, and how unusual behavior is examined without turning suspicion into proof.
None of these tools is intended to manufacture certainty. Their purpose is to make the reasoning visible so readers can evaluate the method before accepting the conclusion.
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Civilian Baseline Test
Compares observed behavior with what an ordinary civilian would likely do under similar circumstances, identifying where additional incentives, constraints, capabilities, or institutional factors should be investigated.
PublishedEvidence vs. Interpretation
Separates what a source establishes from what an investigator infers, believes, or proposes as a possible explanation.
In developmentPrimary Source Priority
Ranks direct records, contemporary documents, material evidence, later testimony, and secondary synthesis according to their evidentiary value and limitations.
In developmentIncentive Analysis
Identifies the rewards, penalties, dependencies, risks, and obligations that may shape behavior beyond stated intentions.
In developmentInstitutional Analysis
Examines how rules, hierarchy, information asymmetry, scale, and distributed responsibility can produce outcomes that no single participant openly intended.
In developmentOperating principles
How these methods are used
- Observation is stated before motive is assigned.
- Claims are proportional to the available evidence.
- Uncertainty is disclosed rather than silently resolved.
- Competing explanations remain open until evidence narrows them.
- Institutional incentives are examined alongside personal intent.
- A heuristic may direct inquiry but cannot substitute for proof.
Method before conclusion.
Readers should be able to reject a Patterns of Madness interpretation while still understanding exactly how the evidence was organized and why a question was considered worth investigating.